Jabil Inc (JBL)

Bull Case

Based on the comprehensive research synthesis, here's the Bull Case for JBL's upcoming Q3 FY2025 earnings play:

Probability of Bull Case: 70%

Supporting Factors for ER:

• Strong track record of beating EPS estimates (last 4 quarters consecutively)
• Management already raised FY25 guidance twice this year, showing confidence
• AI-related revenue trending well above expectations ($7.5B target for FY25)
• Recent strength in Cloud, Data Center Infrastructure segments noted in Q2
• New $1B share repurchase authorization signals management confidence
• Strategic shift to higher-margin business improving profitability despite revenue declines
• Recent positive price target raises from Goldman Sachs and Barclays

Risks to Thesis:

• Stock trading near 52-week highs ($180.16)
• Technical indicators suggest overbought conditions (RSI: 73.09)
• Consistent insider selling from executives
• High implied volatility (54.9%) suggests significant options premium
• Average analyst price targets suggest limited immediate upside
• Historical post-ER moves often smaller than implied straddle

ER Play Trade Strategy: